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Now that the contentious elections are over, all kinds of questions are coming up about what a Trump administration would be like concerning taxes, the economy, and trade agreements. While he has explained policies on those issues, he has said almost nothing about the housing market, which is generally on an uptrend. But that hasn’t stopped a raft of experts from trying to predict what will likely happen to homes for sale throughout the nation and specifically, in California.

Economic Excitement
For his economic agenda, Trump has promised infrastructure improvements, which, along with the president-elect’s background in business and real estate could mean more development and growth, a positive for the real estate market, says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Realtor.com.

Down Payment Demands
During his campaign, Trump promised to cut the number of tax brackets from seven to three. This could leave more money on the table for consumers to use for buying homes, says Clare Trapeso, senior news editor of Realtor.com. Tax cuts may be particularly significant for the wealthy, which could boost the high-end property market.

However, the Republican Party promised reforms that may require buyers to lay out bigger down payments or cope with higher interest rates. Bob Edelstein, co-chair of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley says “The heart of Republican support — blue-collar, middle-aged workers — are the people who will [be affected] the most. It may be harder to get mortgages, and those that will be available will be less advantageous.”

Blue State Blues
The chief economist at Trulia.com, Ralph McLaughlin, thinks it’s all a matter of perception. He believes that in red states where the economy has stagnated, home buyers will feel an increase in confidence and be more likely to make large investments, such as in homes. However, in economically vibrant blue states, the shock of a Trump victory will rattle the electorate, making large purchases less likely.

Mortgage Mixes
Over at Forbes, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, sees changes to Dodd-Frank financial regulations as having an effect on the lending end. Lifting compliance burdens on small local and community banks will allow them to fund more housing construction. But changing lending regulations on larger institutions like Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs may lead us to another housing crisis.

If you want to discuss your personal home-buying prospects under the new administration or just want to tour a model home, please contact us.